The Consumer Base Isn’t Infinite

One thing I love to do, or perhaps more accurately, one thing my mind loves to do, is to continue a thought.  To take an idea, play it through, and ask myself, what happens next? And then, what happens after that?

In reality there is rarely an endpoint. Systems are dynamic. New variables emerge. But I often find that if you keep following a line of thinking for long enough, you eventually arrive at an assumption that everyone seems to have accepted without ever really questioning.

Lately, inspired by recent conversations, I've been wondering whether one of those assumptions is the consumer base itself, people.

Businesses, investors and governments understandably spend a great deal of time thinking about economic growth. Consumer confidence, spending patterns, market expansion, productivity and profitability all feature heavily in the conversation. Underpinning all of this, often without being explicitly acknowledged, is a simple assumption: there will always be consumers, people, willing and able to buy.

But what if that assumption isn't as robust as we think it is?

Every consumer business, regardless of sector, relies on people being both willing and able to purchase its products or services.  The willingness to buy is influenced by many things; marketing, branding, habit, culture, convenience and price.

However, the ability to buy is something else entirely.  It depends on having an income, which depends on participating in the economy, which depends, to a remarkable extent, on health.

Health influences our productivity, our cognitive performance, our energy, our resilience, our ability to work, and ultimately our disposable income. In other words, the strength of the consumer base is inseparable from the health and wellbeing of the population, yet we rarely talk about them together.

Instead, population health is often discussed as a cost. Rising healthcare expenditure. Increasing demand on health services. Growing burdens of chronic disease.  These are all important conversations, but what if declining population health is also becoming one of the biggest commercial risks of our time?

If we continue this thought, we are seeing rising obesity, increasing rates of type 2 diabetes, worsening metabolic health, growing mental ill health, declining fertility and more people leaving the workforce because of long-term illness.  

Each of these trends has implications far beyond healthcare.  They affect productivity, economic participation, disposable income, consumer confidence, and ultimately, consumption itself.

My direct nature isn’t always appreciated, but to spell it out, if people are unhappy, experiencing chronic health issues and not having babies, then the productive consumer base with disposable income to buy products and services is dying out! Perhaps the greatest long-term threat to consumer spending isn't inflation, but the declining health of the consumer.

This is where I can go down a rabbit hole, but humour me for a moment, let’s take an ultra-processed food company, or indeed any business whose commercial success depends on encouraging frequent consumption of products that diminish, rather than enhance, human wellbeing over time.

Their objective, quite understandably, is to maximise sales.  To increase frequency, build loyalty and create demand!  But if we simply continue that thought, what happens decades later?  What happens if, collectively, the consumer base becomes less healthy, less productive and less economically active as a consequence of the environments we've created?

At what point does short-term commercial success begin to erode the long-term foundations upon which future commercial success depends?

To be clear, this isn't about singling out ultra-processed food companies. Nor is it about removing individual choice. I firmly believe people should have the freedom to make their own decisions, including what they choose to eat.  Nor is this challenge confined to food. There are many industries that benefit from patterns of consumption which, over time, may reduce rather than enhance human wellbeing.

The question I'm asking is much simpler than that.  What happens if we just continue the thought?  Because eventually, we arrive at a rather uncomfortable possibility, which isn’t that pleasant to talk about.  

The consumer base itself isn't infinite.  It's a living population whose ability to consume depends on its ability to thrive.

Perhaps we've become very good at thinking about customer acquisition, customer retention and lifetime customer value, while giving remarkably little thought to preserving the health and capability of the people who make those concepts possible in the first place.

We increasingly recognise that natural resources are finite. We talk about protecting biodiversity, preserving soil health and managing environmental sustainability because we understand that economies ultimately depend upon healthy natural systems.  Shouldn't we begin thinking about our human systems in much the same way?

People are not an infinite resource.  Their health, capability, fertility, productivity and ability to participate in society and the economy are not constant, they require thought and investment if they are to remain resilient over time.

Perhaps this is where preventative health needs to evolve, not simply as a way of reducing healthcare costs, or as corporate social responsibility, it goes way beyond this if you continue the thought!

It becomes an obvious and necessary strategy to protect the long-term resilience of the consumer economy, which is fundamental to our current system.

Viewed through this lens, preventative health becomes far more than a moral obligation, it becomes an investment in preserving the future consumer base upon which every consumer business ultimately depends.

The moral economics of this discussion are perhaps a perspective for another day.  But from a purely commercial standpoint, I can't help wondering whether we've overlooked something remarkably obvious, although I understand why because it’s an uncomfortable, confronting conversation.

If the long-term trajectory of population health continues in its current direction, are we quietly eroding the very consumer base upon which so much of our economic growth depends?  Perhaps the greatest competitive advantage of the future won't simply be attracting more customers, but helping ensure there are healthy customers left to attract.

About the author

Dr Laura Holland is an advisor in preventative health and human capability, with a background in economics, nutrition and integrative medicine. Through BeU, she works privately with individuals, advises organisations, and writes about the future of health, behaviour and human flourishing.